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BETTING ODDS
Biggest Favorites:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, -10.5
Minnesota Vikings, -10
New England Patriots, -8
Dallas Cowboys, -7
Highest Game Totals:
NYG@DAL, 51.5
GB@CIN, 50
SF@ARI, 49.5
DET@MIN, 49.5
MIA@TB, 48.5
Highest Implied Team Totals:
Minnesota Vikings, 29.75
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 29.5
Dallas Cowboys, 29.25
Arizona Cardinals, 27.5
Green Bay Packers, 26.25
Lowest Implied Team Totals:
Houston Texans, 15.5
Miami Dolphins, 19
Chicago Bears, 19.25
Detroit Lions, 19.75
Pittsburgh Steelers, 19.75
This is by far my most favorite slate so far this season as we do not have as many high total games as we had in previous slates. We only have two games that are projecting for over 50 points. No Chiefs, Bills, Rams, Ravens or Seahawks on this slate, so this knocks off at least 4 of the top QBs in the league. This is shaping up to be a wonderful slate. Lets dive into some stacks that are grading out well in our top stacks model.
- By looking at our model we can see that we are very high on 3 teams (Bengals, Cowboys, and Giants) as their Shark Rating is very high compared to the field.
- Lets start with the Bengals as they have the highest rating on both sites. Joe Burrow + Tyler Boyd/Tee Higgins/Jamar Chase is very much in play this week as this is a spot where we can see Burrow throw for 300+ yards and 3 TDs. We have the projected for 22.33 points which is not too bad but what has this stack grading out so well is how cheap all of the pieces are on both sites. Look to target this stack in all formats.
- Next, Dallas Cowboys are grading out very well on both sites and lead our model with the highest team total. We will not get as much leverage on the field by playing this stack, but what has me very interested in the Cowboys this week is that there are a great amount of ways to stack them as they have a lot of pieces. Dak Presscott+ Cedee Lamb/Amir Cooper/Dalton Shultz/Blake Jarwin are all in play this week. When you consider the Cowboys team total and Shark Rating they are my favorite stack this week on both sites.
- Another stack that is grading out very well is the New York Giants. They are in the same game as the Cowboys so this makes great for game stacks as we have this game total around 55 points. Daniel Jones + Kenny Golladay/Kadarius Toney/Evan Engram is my ideal way to build Giants stacks this week.
- Last, we have some stacks that are grading out very well and are very cheap, which will give you the option to jam in some spend up options on both sites. Chicago Bears and Miami Dolphins are great stacks this week that are high in leverage and also great point per dollar stacks.
Running Backs
- Derrick Henry leads our model with the highest Shark Rating at the running back position on both sites but he is also the highest owned. What you decide to do with Henry this week is crucial to your builds. I personally will be underweight on Henry this week as we have some running backs that are grading out very well at a much cheaper price tag.
- Leonard Fournette has taken over the backfield for the Bucs over the past two games and if he continues to get this same amount of volume this week he should smash his price tag on both sites. I have a lot of interest in Fournette this week as a one off play and also as a run back option in my Miami stacks.
- Chuba Hubbard was a huge let down last week at high ownership and this week he is projecting to be much lower owned than he was last week. WHY? Is it because he did not score a touchdown? I’m pretty sure that is why, but our model is still very high on him this week as the volume is there and you can not pass up on a running back that played in 70% of the snaps and also sees work in the passing game. TD variance was not on his side last week but if he gets into the endzone this week and gets the same amount of volume he will smash his price tag!
- James Robinson is another running back that is projecting very well in our model and is firmly in play on both sites.
- Some other running backs that I recommend having in your player pool this week are Najee Harris, Aaron Jones,Josh Jacobs, and Alvin Kamara.
Wide Receiver
- Davante Adams leads our model on both sites with the highest Shark Rating on both sites and is firmly in play. It’s very hard to fit Adams and Henry in the same lineup this week but if you can make it work and feel great about your lineup then go for it! Personally, I will be very overweight on Adams this week as I plan to be under on Henry. I love Adams this week as a one off play and definitely as a run back in Bengals stacks.
- A lot of our top WRs are already listed above in our top stacks section. So we recommend to use those WRs listed above even if you have to use them as one offs or in secondary stacks.
- Some other guys that are grading out well that can be used as one offs are Adam Thielen, Antonio Brown, Marvin Jones Jr, Jaylen Waddle, Brandin Cooks, Darnell Mooney, Allen Robinson.
Tight Ends
- Darren Waller and Mike Gesicki lead our model in Sharks Rating and are great plays if you have the money to get up to him.
- I personally will be in the mid range with guys like Evan Engram, Dalton Schultz, and Robert Tonyan.
Overall this should be a great slate with a lot of places to gain positive leverage on the field. Be sure to check out our lineup template closer to lock to get an in depth look on how we are building our lineups for each contest.
https://sportssharkanalytics.com/nfl/nfl-dfs-line-up/