Welcome to the Sports Shark Analytics! If you are not a member, come give us a try and use our promo code SHARKS30 for 30% off your first payment.  This article is  intended to give you some tips, picks, and lineup advice for Thursday’s single game NFL matchup. Make sure to check out our single game template closer to lock to get insights on roster construction for both Fanduel and Draftkings. Lets dive in as this game should be fireworks!!

 

 

 

BETTING ODDS:

 

Spread, Total
KC -4, 53.5

Team Totals 
Chiefs 29.0 
Chargers 24.50

Spread Bet Percentages
Chiefs 70%
Chargers 30%

 

Overview

 

• Keenan Allen is OUT so this gives the WRs for LAC a huge boost as we should see more volume for Mike Williams, Joshua Palmer, and DeAndre Carter.  Each of these guys saw at least 4 targets last game when Allen went out in the first half. With the coaching staff now having more time to prepare for his absence we should see more targets go towards all 3 of these guys.

 

• We have a huge total for this game so we should see a bunch of scoring from both sides. On both sites we see a good amount of ownership going to both Ekler and CEH so possibly going underweight on them in order to get more pass catchers could provide leverage.

 

• Both teams are a very pass heavy offense and play at a fast pace as well so I do expect fireworks from both sides especially if this game can stay close.

 

 

 Roster Construction Thoughts

 

• Based on our single game model we need to jam in as many QB CPT lineups as possible tonight due to both guys having a very high optimal shark rating at the CPT spot. Pat Mahomes is projecting to be the highest owned CPT tonight but he has a slight -2.4% leverage rate at the CPT. It is actually  Justin Herbert who has the highest positive leverage score at the CPT at a little over 4.7%. In large field GPPs I will be over the field on Herbert by a pretty wide margin.

 

• We should see more of a balanced 3-3 build by the field tonight on DK so in order to grab some leverage, going with a 4-2 build or even a 5-1 build is very much in play especially if going with the Chargers route as they are projecting to be lower owned compared to the KC side.

 

• On the Charger side Joshua Palmer is under-priced for his expected role tonight as when he is given the chances he can really fill up the stat sheet. Last year, in the games that he did start he posted receiving lines of 5/66/1, 5/43/1, and 4/45/1 in three games. If we get anywhere close to that type of production, he will for sure be in the optimal lineup at 5K and 7K.

 

• Mike Williams will be a staple point in my lineups tonight as well as his ownership should be lower than what it should be due to his recent performance last week. Keep in mind he was the biggest beneficiary last season when Allen was out as he was second on the team in target share.

 

• I mentioned in the overview that I plan to be under on CEH tonight and the best direct pivot off him would be Jerick McKinnon.  At only 2.6K he is still the primary pass-catching back for the Chiefs and if we are expecting a shootout he fits very well in the script. With this price he will most likely be my highest owned Chiefs player.

 

• Another sneaky option for the Chiefs is Mecole Hardman who served as the deep threat for KC last week He saw 6 targets and could see even more tonight as last week the game got out of hand early. Very strong GPP play.

 

• In most lineups I am really looking to target the passing game as much as possible and go very underweight on the running backs outside of Jerrick McKinnon. This will lead to some great leverage as the field will have a good amount of Ekler and CEH.

 

 

Top CPT/MVP Options- Pat Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Joshua Palmer (DK), Mike WIllams (DK)

 

 

Favorite Prop Bet-  Both QBs over their passing props. Justin Herbert Over 283 Passing Yards, Pat Mahomes Over 294 Passing Yards

 

 

Be sure to check out our bets page where we list our bet slips for tonight’s game, TD parlay, prop bets and prize picks

 

https://sportssharkanalytics.com/shark-bets/

 

 

 

New to PrizePicks? We provide PrizePicks plays as well in our bets section!

 

https://app.prizepicks.com/sign-up?invite_code=sharkattack

 

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