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BETTING ODDS:

Spread, Total
TB -7, 53

Team Totals 
Buccaneers 29.75 
Eagles 23.25

Spread Bet Percentages
Tampa Bay 90%
Philadelphia 10%

We get another great Thursday Night Football game between the Bucs and Eagles. Lets break it down from a fantasy perspective. We will start with Draftkings.

• Our model is very high on Jalen Hurts tonight as he has the highest Shark Rating and Shark Rating at the CPT position as well. Majority of this is due to his scrambling ability which gives him a very high floor/ceiling combo. Just keep in mind that he will be very high owned in the CPT spot tonight as we have him projected for over 20% in the CPT spot. With him showing up in only 17.7% as the CPT in our simulations this is projecting for a spot where we can fade him as the CPT in our GPP builds. In cash games he is a strong CPT choice.

• Lets take a look at some guys that will give us  positive  leverage in the CPT spot tonight. Off first look at our model both running backs are showing up in over 14% each in our simulations as the optimal CPT but their projected ownership is around the 5% mark. This is screaming to me as a spot where we need to hammer them RB1s tonight at the CPT spot as this gives us great leverage on the field. From a Sharks Rating standpoint Leonard Fournette is the better option of the two due to the fact that the Bucs are 7 point favorites which could lead to some extra ground game for him if the Bucs are up throughout the game. Do not forget about Miles Sanders  though as he is very much in play. I know he has been terrible this season so far but with  Dallas Goedert  being ruled out we are projecting for some more short yardage pass work for Miles Sanders.  Also if you want to change the script and project that the Eagles play from ahead majority of the game then this benefits Sanders even more!!

• Next, is the WRs from both sides mostly Chris Godwin and DeVonta Smith as they have the highest Shark Rating at the CPT. They are very much in play as this game does have some shootout potential as both defenses are very poor against the pass so far this season.

• What to do with Tom Brady? Our model is indicating that rostering Tom Brady as your CPT tonight brings alot of negative leverage to your lineup as he is the 2nd highest projected CPT but he is only showing up in 7% of our simulation runs as the CPT tonight. This does not mean fade him in the flex but I am taking a full fade approach as my CPT tonight.

• If you are needing some value in your lineups tonight then looking at guys like Kenneth Gainwell and Zach Ertz from the Eagles side is viable and from the Bucs side there is not much value that is really popping in our model but if you want to take some game theory shots then Giovani Bernard is in play if you are building lineups with the Bucs trailing early.

• Overall on Draftkings we recommend to fade both QBs in the CPT and look to target guys like Leonard Fournette, Miles Sanders, DeVonta Smith, and Chris Godwin. In cash games look to target Jalen Hurts as your CPT. As far as lineup construction building 3-3 balanced lineups or 4 Eagles and 2 Bucs is the recommended approach.

FanDuel Strategy

• As always on FanDuel we have to look at it way different than Draftkings as we need to the highest scoring player to be our MVP to take down these large field contests. Jalen Hurts leads our model on FD with the highest Shark Rating at the MVP spot. Even though he is projecting to be the highest owned MVP our model is indicating that he is not projected to  be played enough at the MVP spot. We have him coming in 37% of our simulations runs as the MVP compared to  30% projected ownership.  So its not a very big margin but it is enough positive  leverage that makes me want to hammer Hurts in as my MVP on FD.

• After Hurts our next positive leverage spots are with the RBs just like on Draftkings with Leonard Fournette and Miles Sanders. I would look to target these guys as my MVP in only large field tournaments and only if you are making 30+ lineups. The likelihood of both of these guys being the highest scoring player on the slate is slim but we are still getting a significant amount of Leonard Fournette and Miles Sanders MVP lineups in our simulations that makes it worth a shot.

• What to do with Tom Brady? Unlike Draftkings where he shows up as negative leverage in the CPT spot, FanDuel is a tad bit different as QBs have a high chance of being in the MVP spot due to FD being a half PPR site. Our model actually is  showing neutral leverage in Tom Brady MVP lineups so its worth a shot if you want to take it. Personally I will be jamming in Hurts MVP lineups but Brady is not a bad MVP choice on FD.

• Some flex options that are popping on FD tonight from the Eagles side are DeVonta Smith, Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell. From the Bucs side Antonio Brown, Mike Evans and Leonard Fournette are all in play as well.

• Overall on FD I recommend starting your lineups in both Cash Games and GPPs with Jalen Hurts as your MVP. If making more than 30+ lineups then taking some shots on Leonard Fournette and Miles Sanders is viable. As far as lineup construction look to build lineups with 3 Eagles and 2 Bucs.

Favorite Prop Bet Of The Night

Miles Sanders Over 9.5 Carries (+100)

Overall this should be a great slate with a lot of places to gain positive leverage on the field in GPPSs Be sure to check out our lineup template closer to lock to get an in depth look on how we are building our lineups for each contest. Link is below

http://https://sportssharkanalytics.com/nfl/nfl-dfs-line-up/