Welcome to the Sports Shark Analytics! If you are not a member, come give us a try and use our promo code SHARKS30 for 30% off your first payment.  This article is  intended to give you some insights  and lineup advice for Thursday’s single game NFL match up.

Closer to lock we will go in more depth with our strategy for tonight’s game. You can find our content here https://sportssharkanalytics.com/nfl/single-game-template/

BETTING ODDS:

Spread, Total
CAR +2.5 41.5

Team Totals 
Falcons 21.5 
Panthers 19.5

Spread Bet Percentages
Falcons 74%
Panthers 26%

Overview

• These two teams played two weeks ago during Week 8 and our community was all on Mariota stacks with run backs of Foreman and D.J Moore. The game ended up shooting out as the Falcons won 37-34 in OT. I do not expect the same type of game tonight though as weather will be a huge issue in Carolina due to a tropical storm bringing a lot of rain to the Charlotte area. This game has a 2.5 spread with a game total of 41.5. So this indicates that we may have another close game as both teams are fighting for first place in the NFC South.

• Cordelle Paterson came back last week from his injury  and made what was already a split backfield even more spread out as he played 39% of the snaps.Tyler Allgeier played on 38% of snaps, and Caleb  Huntley played on 21% of the snaps last week so this backfield is very spread out. Paterson has the most raw talent and upside of these 3 so as the season goes on he may take over as the lead back.

• Atlanta is a run first team as they lead the league with the highest run/pass ratio by a big margin. This limits their passing upside, but Marcus Mariota’s value mostly comes from his legs as he has elite rushing upside. He has rushed for at least 40 yards every game this season and this makes him by far one of the safest options on the slate.

• As far as the WRs for the Falcons side, the majority of my interest is Kyle Pitts and Drake London as the lead team in target share and air yards. Pitts did have a huge game against them in Week 8 and he is starting to come around as a solid option for them after a slow start. If wanting a pivot off these two guys then Olamide Zaccheaus is a fine option and cheap across both sites.

• On the Carolina side, we saw P.J Walker get pulled last week at half time after he had one of his worst halves of his young career.  His leash may be short once again tonight which makes him a little risky but this match up versus the Falcons is great if he can get it going early.

• Chubba Hubbard is expected to be back which hurts Foreman ceiling some as he was seeing the majority of the work for the Falcons during his absence. We are projecting for a 65-35 split in favor of Foreman as Chubba will see the majority of the passing game work. In lineups around the Panthers winning I like Foreman and in lineups around them trailing Chubba is a fine GPP target.

• The passing game for the Panthers is very concentrated now that CMC and Robbie Anderson are now gone. D.J Moore leads the team in air yards, target share and receptions as he is by far the top option for the Panthers passing attack tonight. Terrance Marshall’s target share is starting to rise and they have also given him at least 2-3 targets inside the redzone the past 3 games which makes him an interesting target. Shi Smith and Tommy Tremble are fine for large field GPPs if making 20+ lineups

Roster Construction Thoughts

• Based on our single game model for Draftkings our sims are giving Marcus Mariota negative leverage at the CPT spot with D.J Moore getting a huge positive leverage boost as the CPT. This could lead to a great way to be different for large field GPPs. Also if wanting to pay down for a cheaper CPT, then Kyle Pitts and Drake London are in play as well.

• On FD majority of the ownership is looking to go towards Marcus Mariota but going with Moore is fine for positive leverage or in builds centered around the Panthers winning Foreman would be a great MVP option as he has a lot of TD upside.

Favorite Prop Bet- D.J Moore Over 57.5 Receiving Yards

Be sure to check out our bets page where we list our bet slips for tonight’s game, TD parlay, prop bets and prize picks

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