Welcome to the Sports Shark Analytics! If you are not a member, come give us a try and use our promo code SHARKS30 for 30% off your first payment.  This article is  intended to give you some tips, picks, and lineup advice for Thursday’s single game NFL matchup. Make sure to check out our single game template closer to lock to get insights on roster construction for both Fanduel and Draftkings. Lets dive in as this game should be fireworks!!

 

BETTING ODDS

 

Spread, Total
BUF -2, 52.5

Team Totals 
Bills 27.25 (0)
Rams 25.25 (0)

Spread Bet Percentages
Bills 69%
Rams 31%

Overview

 

The NFL season is finally here and we get a great game to start off Week 1! As both teams have great odds to reach the Super Bowl this year, I fully expect tonight’s game to be full of offense as both sides have elite passing offenses and play makers that can make plays. Both teams were in the top 10 last year in points scored, which is probably why we see a total of 52.5 on most sports books. A shootout is very likely here tonight, so prioritizing a QB or WR at the MVP/CPT spot is my ideal way to approach tonight’s slate. We do have some value at the WR spot now that Van Jefferson is ruled out so this should open up some very interesting builds.  Lets break the slate down with Draftkings first followed by Fanduel.

 

 

Draftkings Roster Construction Thoughts- 

 

• We have a close spread and a high game total so the field will likely want to get shares  to both teams tonight, meaning 3-3 builds will be the most popular. An easy way to be different is to go with an onslaught build with a 4-2 stack. This is my preferred way to build but will for sure have some 3-3 builds as well. Based on our single game model going with a WR at the CPT spot is the best way to build tonight as Kupp, Diggs, Davis, and Robinson all have positive leverage at the CPT spot.

 

• My favorite of these 4 is actually Allen Robinson tonight as he has the best leverage score and is coming up in 14% of our simulations runs as a CPT but only is projected to be 7% owned at the CPT spot. I plan to have zero QBs at the CPT spot as both Allen and Stafford have a negative score based off our model. As far as the RBs I will only roster them at the flex spot as well but I plan to have very little of them as I want to focus the majority of my builds on the passing game.   For value I will be looking at  Atwell, Crowder, DSTs and Ben Skowronek.

 

• Top CPT Options-  Allen Robinson, Stefon Diggs, Cooper Kupp and Gabe Davis

 

 

Fanduel Roster Construction Thoughts

 

• Fanduel is a different animal compared to Draftkings as we do not have to pay the extra salary for our MVP spot which makes lineup construction very different. Based on our model we have Josh Allen coming in at almost 50% of optimal builds at the MVP spot which leads the slate by a wide margin. He is only projected to be around 28-30% owned at the MVP so this is saying that the field is not rostering him enough at the MVP spot. I plan to have an all in approach to him on FD as my MVP and look to get different elsewhere in my lineups.

 

• One way to get different is to always leave salary which may not be enough at times for a solo winner. Probably my most favorite way is to build onslaught builds centered around LA Rams but have just one Bills player with Allen or have him as my only Bills player. As far as flex options I want to get as much of Robinson as possible but also want to lean towards the RBs more on FD due to WRs not getting a full point for a reception. James Cook is landing in a good bit of my builds as a very cheap value play that could see at least 20-25% of the snaps tonight on 3rd down.

 

• Top MVP Options- Josh Allen (Will most likely just lock him in)

 

 

Final Thoughts

 

We have very huge payouts tonight so in order to ship these contests we need to be different on both sites. Always look to leave some sort of salary left over and to think outside of the box for all of your builds. A building rule that I am setting tonight is to not roster both RBs together on the same team so this leaves a max of 1 RB per team. Also do not forget about Kickers they are a viable source of value on both sites.

 

Favorite Prop Bet-  Josh Allen Over 23.5 Pass Completions

 

Be sure to check out our bets page where we list our bet slips for tonight’s game, TD parlay, prop bets and prize picks

 

https://sportssharkanalytics.com/shark-bets/

 

 

 

New to PrizePicks? We provide PrizePicks plays as well in our bets section!

 

https://app.prizepicks.com/sign-up?invite_code=sharkattack

 

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