MLB Bets

Boston Red Sox Total Runs OVER 5.0 (+105)- This Boston team is accustomed to scoring a lot of runs. Tonight they have a matchup against their rivals, the New York Yankees. With Jordan Montgomery at the helm, I expect the Red Sox to take advantage. I like calculated risk, so when I get a chance to make plus money I love it! Even though I am high on taking the plus money, feel free to take the Red Sox Total Runs OVER at 4.5 (-125) as well.

Tampa Bay Rays/ Atlanta Braves OVER 8.5 (-115)- I have to be honest in that I was not initially inclined to take this pick. With the injury to Acuna, Joc Pederson yet to join the team, and Charlie Morton on the mound, I seriously felt this was a recipe for a low scoring game. But when the analytics start to talk to you, you have to listen. In tonight’s matchup we have a Vegas line at 8.5. Our projection has this game at 9.92 expected runs. This by far is the greatest variance in Vegas and our analytics’ expected runs.

Seattle Mariners Total Runs OVER 4.0 (-120)- It’s always a risk banking on this Mariner squad to produce runs. However, they are in a favorable spot going against the Angels. The pitching staff of the Angels hasn’t been a bright spot for this team all year. 4 out the last 5 games that Andrew Heaney has started, the Angels have given up at least 4 runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Total Runs OVER 4.5 (EVEN)- Another sleeper pick to cover tonight is the Brewers matching up against the Cincinnati Reds. As a team, The Brewers don’t have many matchups against the righty Tyler Mahle of the Reds in their career. Our model reflects that a good bit of contact will be made, and Mahle’s strikeouts will be lower than Vegas expects. With this type of leverage, I’m firing up the Brewers to generate the runs to cover this bet.