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We start Week 13 off with an AFC east match up between the Bills and Patriots. The Bills are currently tied for first place in the division and the Patriots are in 4th place but they are only 2 games behind them. This game will mean a lot for both sides so we should see a very competitive game. Most sports books have the Bills as 4 point favorites. Lets take a more in depth look at where we can find some value on Prize Picks with a few plays.
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 15.5 Rush Attempts
Our models are projecting for Stevenson to get 18.4 carries tonight, which is well over what the betting markets have tonight. With Damion Harris being ruled out, it gives Stevenson a very high floor as he will see the bulk of the carries. He will be a very important option for the Pats tonight.
Jakobi Meyers Over 4 Receptions
Meyers is averaging 5.4 receptions a game this season and this is great value for this prop. Our models are projecting Meyers to see 8.5 targets tonight which is half of his suggested prop total. Look for him to be very involved in the Patriots aerial attack tonight.
Josh Allen Pass Attempts Over 34.5
The Patriots have one of the best run defenses in the league as they are not afraid to stack the box. So far this season they have stacked the box versus opponents 19.3% of the time. This could be a long day for the running game which will result in more drop backs for Allen.
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